Stat Attack - The Omloop/Flanders double
Why are men absolutely useless at this?
It is, undoubtedly, one of cycling’s strangest statistical oddities: no male rider has ever won both Omloop Het Nieuwsblad and the Tour of Flanders in the same year.
This isn’t just an arbitrary pairing of two races willy nilly. Quite the opposite. The Omloop was founded in 1945 as a direct rival to the Ronde van Vlaanderen, originally even named the Omloop van Vlaanderen. The two races share much of the same DNA, both traverse the cobbled climbs of Flanders, and every Omloop winner should, in theory, have the physical attributes to win the Ronde as well. Yet, in 77 years where both races have taken place, no rider has ever done the double.
Theories and Counterarguments
The most common theory as to why this particular double has never been done is simply a matter of timing. With five weeks between the races, the thinking goes that peaking in late February (or early March as it is on occasion) makes it difficult to maintain top form into early April. A similar argument is often cited for La Malédiction de la Marseillaise, the supposed curse that befalls the winner of the GP La Marseillaise, the traditional season opener in France. Win that race in January, the theory suggests, and you’ve hit form too early.
But the numbers don’t quite support this logic when it comes to Het Nieuwsblad and the Tour of Flanders. If five weeks were truly an insurmountable gap, we wouldn’t see riders even coming close to winning both. Yet, it has happened 22 times that a rider has finished on the podium in both races in the same year.
The most recent examples are Nils Politt last year, Greg van Avermaet in 2017 and 2014, Peter Sagan in 2016 and Niki Terpstra in 2015. More tellingly, an average of 107 riders per season over the past two decades have started both races. In 16 of the last 20 years, at least one rider has managed a top-10 finish in both. Clearly, plenty of riders maintain form across the five-week period, it’s just that none have been able to win both.
The King of Consistency
Among those who have come close, one name stands above the rest: Jan Raas. The bespectacled Dutchman holds the record for most podium finishes in both races in the same year, managing the feat four times. He won Het Nieuwsblad once and the Tour of Flanders twice, but never in the same season.
Further evidence that the five-week gap isn’t an insurmountable obstacle is that four riders have pulled off a similar double with Kuurne-Brussel-Kuurne and the Tour of Flanders, a combination arguably more difficult given that Kuurne takes place the day after Het Nieuwsblad and is a very different type of race. Those four riders are Noel Foré (1963), Jan Raas (1983), Edwig van Hooydonck (1989), and Andrei Tchmil (2000).
A Matter of Tactics?
One possible reason for the Het Nieuwsblad-Flanders drought could lie in team strategy. Many squads use Het Nieuwsblad as a race to keep their secondary leaders happy, giving them an early-season opportunity before focusing all their resources on their top-tier contenders for Flanders. This would explain why, while no individual has won both, teams have managed to win both races in the same season eight times, most recently in 2021, when Davide Ballerini won the Omloop and Kasper Asgreen triumphed at the Ronde for Deceuninck-Quick Step.
The Women’s Exception
While the men’s peloton continues to be haunted by this statistical anomaly, the women have already made a mockery of it. The women’s Het Nieuwsblad and Tour of Flanders double has only been possible since 2006, yet it has already been done twice. Lizzie Deignan took both titles in 2016, doing so in the rainbow jersey. And in 2023, Lotte Kopecky matched the feat, winning both in dominant fashion.
For now, though, the men’s Het Nieuwsblad-Flanders double remains a mystery, a riddle with no clear answer. With Søren Wærenskjold winning the first of the two races, with the greatest respect to the Norwegian, it seems likely this cursed double will continue for another year at least.
This is the topic on offer in the latest edition of the DNF podcast where, with my co-hosts Harry and Stu, we pick apart this stat and present to you our findings and thoughts. There is plenty more besides. Please give it a listen and let us know what you think.